Before the Iraqi war Labour was experiencing its worst run of poll ratings since Tony Blair became leader. Its rating has now simply returned to where it was just before Christmas. But that still leaves it three points down on where it was this time last year, let alone at least eight points below where it was four years ago. In short, even if Labour has gained from the conflict in the Gulf there still seems to be plenty of scope for Conservative gains tomorrow – and Labour losses. The party’s control of a number of big councils – Bristol, Bolton, Derby, Leicester, Trafford and maybe even Birmingham – could be at stake.Labour has a particular problem of its own – it consistently does less well in local elections than when Westminster elections come around. Its projected share at each annual round of local elections is commonly more than 10 points below its standing in the polls.

So with a current poll rating of no more than 42 per cent, Labour’s projected share this year could well fall below 30 per cent. Meanwhile, possible disaffection among Muslim voters and loss of support to the BNP in some white working-class communities can only add to Labour’s difficulties.Still the gap between Labour’s local vote and its national popularity only emphasises that anything much less than a double-digit Conservative lead in the projected vote – and thus Conservative seat gains well in excess of 500 – will be insufficient to convince that the Conservatives have become a credible alternative to Labour. At the same time the gap leaves Mr Blair vulnerable to the embarrassment of being overtaken by the local election party par excellence, the Liberal Democrats.Charles Kennedy did not have a good war and the Liberal Democrats’ poll rating has fallen back. But at 21 per cent, his party is still at least four points up on where it was four years ago, potentially enough forhundreds of net gains from both Labour and the Conservatives. And as the party regularly wins some 10 per cent more of the projected national vote in local elections than its poll rating it could mean pushing Labour into third place for the first time. That would at least be a reality check for the Government.John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University. You only have to visit an antiquarian book fair, or watch bibliophiles examining with careful eagerness the contents of cardboard boxes full of dusty volumes at a local auction, to see that too much exposure to books can be harmful.

The eyes go first, then the skin takes on the hue and texture of ancient folios (moderate condition, slightly foxed). Finally, the soul itself dries up, normal literary enthusiasm giving way to a lust for acquisition, as if merely possessing a decent edition confers on the owner the wisdom, sensitivity and grace contained in its pages. The collection, which will be on the slab at the London Antiquarian Book Fair early in June, is said to be of particular interest since it records not only the books that were important to Dame Iris, but her own notes and comments in the margins. In a book of Russian language exercises, for example, she wrote, “To become oneself a work of art – what is the use of that? In the end – There is no end Ends are lived through. Death, as Wittgenstein told us, not.”As for how Murdoch became herself, Professor Bayley plays down the role of books. “Her mind seemed to work independently of her precious library, but at the same time she depended for inspiration on the presence of her books,” he has said, announcing the sale.Doubtless the decision of the professor and his new wife to sell off Dame Iris’s precious library on the ground that they need the space will raise a few eyebrows.